Nima Rostami Alkhorshid: Hi, everybody. Today is Tuesday, February 18, 2025, and our friend Col. Lawrence Wilkerson is back with us.
Nima Rostami Alkhorshid: Welcome back, Larry.
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Thank you. I'll tell your audience that we were laughing at one another, trying to figure out how Spanish is spoken, how Portuguese is spoken, etc.
Nima Rostami Alkhorshid: Larry, let's get started with what's going on in Saudi Arabia. There was a meeting between two delegations from the United States and Russia without including European representatives or Ukraine. How did you find that?
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Well, obviously, President Macron found it not to his liking, so he held a meeting in Paris. One of my good friends, who knows Europe better than I do, quoted Horace this morning, saying, "They went to the mountain and met a mouse." That's what Macron achieved in Paris—nobody gave him any real heed.
But yeah, this meeting in Saudi Arabia is part of Trump's plan, and I don't object to it. I don’t know what will come of it—I wish I did—but I don’t object to it. His envoys are going there, and so are Sergey Lavrov and Putin’s envoys. Maybe Lavrov himself—I haven't heard anything definitive about the Russian delegation yet. But they’re meeting to discuss what is central to them, and they see the need to do it without interference from the EU, NATO, or particularly from Zelensky and Ukraine.
I don’t discount it as a good first move. As for why they picked Saudi Arabia, I guess it has to do with Trump’s fondness for Saudi Arabia and its money.
Nima Rostami Alkhorshid: Larry, do you think the Europeans can successfully push back against Trump's approach of excluding them from these negotiations? Do they have any leverage?
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Well, I think Anatole got it right in his piece this morning, quoting Horace again: "They went to make a mountain, and they didn’t even make a mouse turd." That’s likely what Europe’s role in this will end up being because Trump does not want to be interfered with.
And I don’t blame him. From his perspective, watching this unfold from his campaign perch and now from the White House, the Europeans have been nothing but a problem—especially Germany, France, and Britain. Britain, which offers 100-day treaties for an army you could fit in a thimble.
If I were Trump, I wouldn’t want to be beleaguered by them either if I were trying to go straight for the heart of the matter. Now, I don’t pretend for a moment that Trump will actually get to the heart of it—he’s his own worst enemy. But this is a good way to start, in my view.
We learned today that Keith Kellogg is being considered as the lead negotiator with Russia. Alongside him, figures like Rubio and Mike Waltz are involved in talks. Kellogg spoke at the Munich Security Conference about concessions on both sides. He suggested that Putin would have to make territorial concessions.
Nima Rostami Alkhorshid: Territorial concessions? What leverage does the U.S. have to force Russia into that?
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Absurd. He’s operating in the theater of the absurd. And I don’t mean Sartre’s or Camus’ artistic concept—I mean an actual theater of the absurd. Lavrov will eat his lunch, and almost any Russian negotiator worth Putin’s time will do the same.
The way Kellogg is thinking about this is simplistic. The idea of forcing territorial concessions—how is that supposed to work? If they think they can achieve through negotiations what Biden, Blinken, Sullivan, Nuland, and the rest of the neocons failed to do through war, they are delusional. If they believe they can get Russia to back away from Iran, China, or break its alliances, that’s sheer nonsense.
The only thing negotiations can do is stop the killing in Ukraine, recognize that Russia has won, and find the best possible exit. That’s it. If Trump or anyone else is promising more than that, they’re setting themselves up for failure.
Nima Rostami Alkhorshid: Turning to Europe, what do they bring to the table in these negotiations? Who even is "Europe" right now? Macron? Scholz? Orban? Who's running the show?
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: That’s exactly the problem. Europe is fragmented. Are we supposed to negotiate with 30 different countries or just with Berlin? Or an axis between Berlin and Paris? Or something else entirely?
The real issue is that NATO has become a blinky—something little kids cling to for security. Europe has become so dependent on the U.S. that they can’t think, act, or defend themselves independently.
If they don’t fix this, Trump will simply back out completely, leaving only a trade relationship. He’ll impose tariffs on them and walk away from military commitments. That’s dangerous. We need to maintain some kind of transatlantic link.
Nima Rostami Alkhorshid: NATO seems to be under immense pressure. Do you think it's on the brink of collapse?
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Yes. NATO has no future. It hasn’t for a long time. Why? Because there is no threat. Except themselves.
Ukraine was never essential to European security. Putin has no intention of expanding beyond what he’s already taken. NATO's existence now is just an excuse for Washington to sell weapons. That’s why we expanded it—to make defense contractors like Lockheed Martin rich. But alliances based on that kind of foundation do not last.
Nima Rostami Alkhorshid: If Europe wants to survive, what should it do instead of doubling down on its failures in Ukraine?
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Europe needs to grow up.
If I were advising them, I'd say convene a defense conference—not in Paris, but in Berlin. Bring together serious European leaders and start creating a genuine European security identity. And I would invite Russia to observe, with the eventual goal of making them a member of that security architecture.
Then, I'd tell Washington, "We are doing this whether you like it or not." We need to stop pretending that Europe needs America’s permission to have its own security framework. Europe is 740 million people with a $23 trillion GDP. It can take care of itself—if it has the political will to do so.
Nima Rostami Alkhorshid: One final question, Larry. Who’s in charge in Syria right now?
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: That’s the big question. The U.S. withdrawal suggests they’re still formulating their policy. Turkey is getting ready to take a more active role. But the only country that continues to expand its presence and ignore international law is—you guessed it—Israel.
Until we lift sanctions and clarify our goals, Syria will remain a mess. But here's the real scandal: The U.S. has a long history of using groups like Al-Qaeda, Daesh, and other so-called terrorist organizations for its own purposes in the Levant. And then we pretend to be shocked when those groups rebrand themselves and fight back.
Nima Rostami Alkhorshid: Thank you so much, Larry, for being with us today.
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Great pleasure as always. If you figure out what we’re doing in Syria, let me know—give me a call.
Nima Rostami Alkhorshid: Take care, Larry.
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: You too.
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